Flexible
€61,669
30.9 cancelled · 10.8 resold
GATAVIA · CANCELLATION ECONOMICS
Flexible can sell more and still make you less. Non-refundable can protect revenue and still hurt conversion.
The real question is not simply cancellation rate. It is how much revenue survives, how often cancelled dates resell and how much extra demand each policy needs to justify its terms.
Offering free cancellation without knowing the cost of dates that never resell.
Discounting non-refundable rates without knowing how much margin you can give away.
Looking only at cancellation rate while ignoring retained revenue, resale and admin work.
Solution: Gatavia compares flexible, standard and non-refundable under the same economic rules and calculates the exact break-even thresholds.
Your business before choosing a policy
How each policy behaves · Flexible
How each policy behaves · Standard
How each policy behaves · Non-refundable
GATAVIA ANSWER
Policy with highest expected net
Flexible
Flexible produces the highest expected net. The annual advantage over the second-best policy is €2,096.
Expected annual net
€66,645
Realised revenue
€91,637
Completed stays
123.5
Cancellation leakage
€9,163
Net per captured booking
€496
Winner under stress
Non-refundable
Four thresholds to know before changing policy
Extra bookings flexible needs to match standard
8.5%
Maximum flexible cancellation rate before losing to standard
23.3%
Minimum flexible resale rate needed to match standard
37.1%
Maximum non-refundable discount before losing to standard
6.8%
The hidden cost: a cancellation is not simply zero or one hundred
A cancellation may retain part of the price, be resold at a different rate and create extra admin work.
Annual revenue leakage versus all original bookings completing
€11,147
Revenue recovered through resale
€13,083
Do not compare policies by what they promise. Compare what they leave you.
Policies can capture different demand, charge different prices, cancel differently and recover cancelled dates differently. Put all of it in one model.
Policy
Bookings captured
Cancelled
Resold
Realised revenue
Channel + payment
Expected annual net
vs best
Flexible
134.4
24.2
13.3
€91,637
€14,204
€66,645
Best
Standard
120.0
10.8
4.9
€88,016
€13,642
€64,548
−€2,096
Non-refundable
126.0
3.8
1.3
€87,762
€13,603
€63,612
−€3,033
Does the winning policy still win when cancellations worsen?
The stress test is not a forecast. It shows whether the decision depends on optimistic cancellation and resale assumptions.
Stress test: +5 cancellation points and −20 resale-probability points across all policies.
Standard
€62,194
16.8 cancelled · 4.2 resold
Non-refundable
€64,155
10.1 cancelled · 1.5 resold
How we calculate it
For each policy we calculate captured bookings, booking value, cancellations, retained amount, resale probability and resale price. We deduct channel/payment fees, operating costs on completed stays and cancellation admin cost.
Actual refund, retention and fee rules vary by channel, rate plan and contract. Enter your real terms.
FAQ
Which policies are compared?
Flexible, standard and non-refundable, with editable assumptions.
Does it account for resale of cancelled dates?
Yes, including resale probability and recovery rate.
Does it calculate the extra demand flexible needs?
Yes.
Does Gatavia assume non-refundable is better?
No. The winner depends on the economics you enter.